Philosophical Time with Lauren - Part 2

Philosophical Time with Lauren – Part 2

August 3, 2009

Journal

Statistics are bunk.

A long time ago I remember having an argument with Lloyd about probability, and of course, I told him he was wrong.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. (To be fair, I don’t remember much of the argument at all, just that he was wrong.) It had something to do with…. cards? coins? His wrong point was that the probability of one side coming up more often increased after blah blah blah blah.

No.

It will or it won’t.

Fifty-fifty.

Everything has a fifty-fifty chance, in my book. “Will the most qualified athlete win the race? He has a 94% chance.” No, he doesn’t – he will or he won’t. Fifty-fifty.

It’s like that with everything. It is or it isn’t, it does or it doesn’t. In fact, it’s the basis for one of my favorite things to say: “I’m really careful. Until I’m not.”
“I’m really cheap. Until I’m not.”
It works in any situation!
“I eat pretty healthy. Until I don’t.”

Feel free to tell me how I’m wrong, because I’m not.

Or I am.

About Lauren

Lauren Sommerer is a preschool teacher who likes to build prototypes, grow cats, cook things once, save money, reduce, reuse and recycle.

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12 Responses to “Philosophical Time with Lauren – Part 2”

  1. Brad Said on:

    I think I’m confused. Until I’m not.

    I remember us arguing that the probablility dots on the Settler’s of Catan pieces were flawed. The four dot ones sometimes don’t come up for the whole game. It didn’t seem right.

    But the house always wins.

    Reply

    • Lloyd Said on:

      I actually prefer to play Settlers of Catan with people who ignore the probability of the dice rolls.

      Reply

  2. Peggy Said on:

    I just LOVE Philosophical Time w/Lauren…but it got me thinking…what percentage of people spell philosophical right the 1st time, without looking it up? And then I realized…you either spell it right or you don’t! She’s right Lloyd!! As they say, you may be Mr. Right but Lauren’s Mrs. Always Right!

    Reply

  3. Curt Said on:

    I like your way of thinking Lauren. We should start up some friendly wagers between us.

    Reply

  4. Rachel Said on:

    I’m really smart, and then I’m not. it usually happens when I try to be philosophical and completely lose my train of thought because I saw something shiny.

    Reply

  5. Amy Said on:

    Well, I think that a racer has a different probability to win a race if their is more than one racer…

    Reply

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