Statistics are bunk.
A long time ago I remember having an argument with Lloyd about probability, and of course, I told him he was wrong.
Wrong, wrong, wrong. (To be fair, I don’t remember much of the argument at all, just that he was wrong.) It had something to do with…. cards? coins? His wrong point was that the probability of one side coming up more often increased after blah blah blah blah.
No.
It will or it won’t.
Fifty-fifty.
Everything has a fifty-fifty chance, in my book. “Will the most qualified athlete win the race? He has a 94% chance.” No, he doesn’t – he will or he won’t. Fifty-fifty.
It’s like that with everything. It is or it isn’t, it does or it doesn’t. In fact, it’s the basis for one of my favorite things to say: “I’m really careful. Until I’m not.”
“I’m really cheap. Until I’m not.”
It works in any situation!
“I eat pretty healthy. Until I don’t.”
Feel free to tell me how I’m wrong, because I’m not.
Or I am.